Developing Tropical (SIO Invest 99s) scene Friday 8, March AEST 9:00

Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 11:14 am WST on Thursday 7 March 2019
for the period until midnight WST Sunday 10 March 2019.
Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low (17U) is forecast to form south of Bali today (Thursday). If it does form, it is expected to track in a west to southwesterly direction and gradually develop, and pass close to Christmas Island late Sunday or during Monday. There is a Low (less than 20%) chance of this system developing into a tropical cyclone on Saturday and Sunday, increasing to a Moderate chance on Monday.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Friday:
Very Low
Saturday:
Low
Sunday:
Low

Another weak tropical low (15U) was located near 9.0S 128.3E at 8am WST Thursday, which is about 475 km northwest of Darwin. It is forecast to linger north of the Northern Territory until Sunday or Monday, and then possibly take a more west southwest track. It is very unlikely to move into the region over the next 3 days.

There are no other significant lows expected in the Western Region over the next three days.

Likelihood of this or another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Friday:
Very Low
Saturday:
Very Low
Sunday:
Very Low

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