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Winter Storm Ulmer ~ Storm of the Century developing Tuesday, Damaging Winds, Heavy Snow

Winter Storm Ulmer ~ Storm of the Century developing Tuesday, Damaging Winds, Heavy Snow A Very Strong Possibly Historic Spring Storm of the Century looks to fully verify on the GFS, FV3-GFS, ECMWF, and all the Mesoscale models.

How will this Setup play out for Tuesday through Thursday ????
A Deep Upper Level low is expected to move into the Desert SW During the day Tuesday bringing strong winds and Moderate rain and high elevation snow. Winds could gust up to 65 mph at times through New Mexico and up to 45 across Arizona. From there a thermal low will race northward from northern Mexico, Strong winds aloft and a deepening upper level low will align with the thermal low and a period of pressure bombing, Cyclogenesis, Rapid pressure deepening, bombogenesis, or so-called explosive cyclogenesis will occur. All models show central pressure dropping as much as 30 to near 40 millibars in 24 hours and therefore. Most Models show estimated pressure potential energy of 969 to 971 millibars and therefore, damaging Non-Thunderstorm winds are expected. This is a very well structured system and takes on of the shape of a subtropical system and Nor'easter but over land. Winds of 30 to 55 mph with gusts as high as 75 mph are almost certainly likely across New Mexico, all of Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, Eastern Colorado, and the Dakotas. Areas such as Western Texas, Kansas, and New Mexico can expect areas of blowing sand and dust during the day Wednesday as winds will be very strong. This storm will produce a big outbreak of Severe weather and Very heavy snow. There's an Enhanced risk for Severe weather for Much of the Deep South and the Midwest as Warm moist gulf moisture collides with cooler & drier coming off the intermountain west plateau and result will be a very well developed squall line. The biggest severe threats look to be Damaging winds, Very Heavy rain, Large hail, and the atmosphere looks to contain enough wind shear for weak to moderate strength tornado's. 1 to 2 feet of snow looks possible along a rather narrow band that runs across Colorado, Western Half of Nebraska, Central South Dakota, Southeastern South Dakota, and Northwestern Minnesota. Around 1 to 4 inches are likely for the southern half of Minnesota with 6 to 12 inches of snow Northwest corner of Kansas. Blizzard Warnings are expected by the NWS by Monday morning or Tuesday morning. Like I said this is panning out of being a very messy, Dangerous, and Windy storm that may cause fatalities. We have not seen a storm this organized since 1993 and therefore it may be marked as Storm of the Century. Please stay safe and listen to your local officials and authorities and make sure you have food and water just in case if roads close.

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