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How Likely Are US and Iran to Engage in Conflict?

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DAILY DOSE | With U.S. intelligence reports indicating that Iran is militarily preparing for escalation and the U.S. army doing the same, are the two countries now closer to a confrontation? INSS' Emily Landau analyzes.

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Iran’s top general Qassem Soleimani has reportedly met with Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and told them to “prepare for a proxy war”, as tensions continue to soar between Tehran and Washington.

The UK’s Guardian newspaper reported that Soleimani called for the meeting with Iranian-backed forces in Baghdad three weeks ago, but it was not clear when the meeting actually took place.

According to the report, the meeting was a key factor in the US decision to recall all non-essential government staff from Iraq over an "imminent" threat from Iranian-linked militias.

The UK raised its threat level for British troops in Iraq on Thursday, while Germany and The Netherlands halted their military aid programs in the country in light of the escalation.

Tensions between the US and Iran have boiled over recent weeks, with Washington accusing Tehran of preparing attacks against American interests in the region -- reportedly based in part on Israeli intelligence.

The US has significantly boosted its military presence in the region, triggered in part by intelligence information that showed Iranian missiles packed onto civilian boats in the Persian Gulf.

The root of the tensions, however, appears to stem from Iran’s walkback from a 2015 nuclear deal, which President Donald Trump quit in May 2018 snapping back into place punishing sanctions that have crippled Tehran’s economy.

Both sides have said they do not seek war, and Iran has charged that the US wouldn’t dare take any action against it for fear of retribution against Israel.

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